The current boom in the electric vehicle market forecasts batteries’ booming future. Just a decade ago, electric vehicles accounted for almost zero lithium-ion demand. Even though batteries first appeared in electric vehicles in 2006, it wasn’t until 2014 when automobiles accounted for around 15,000 megawatt-hours. Vehicles came to exceed a 25% share of the world’s complete lithium-ion supply.
Between 2014 and 2017, the electric vehicle market’s use of lithium-ion batteries quadrupled to over 71,000 megawatt-hours. The same expectations are predicted by 2023. In 2016, electric vehicles reached 50% of lithium-ion demand.
Humble Beginnings:
Lithium-ion batteries didn’t gain momentum until the 1990s. A chemist named Stanley Whittingham pioneered the rechargeable lithium-ion technology in the early 1970s.
In the 1980s, scientist John Goodenough increased the voltage of lithium-ion batteries and this inevitably increased their energy density.
These developments led to the presence of lithium-ion batteries into cellular phones during the early 1990s. They eventually made their way into other consumer electronics.
Demand Fuelled by Climate Change Efforts:
In efforts to place themselves in the centre of global carbon reduction efforts, governments are taking steps to increase the demand of electric vehicles. California wants five million electric vehicles on its road by 2030. The state is also mandating automakers to sell electric vehicles or pay for zero-emission credits.
China wants seven million electric vehicles on their roads by 2025. While efforts are there, potential setbacks like lower oil prices, and a shortage of charging infrastructure threaten its leverage.
More Batteries, Fewer Costs:
A greater use of batteries will make them more competitive in other markets because it makes for cheaper batteries. Falling costs will bring more batteries onto electrical grids, and homes that have solar panels. It will also bring batteries to buildings that want backups during power outages. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the price of battery packs fell 24% last year alone.
The decline in costs is causing continuous expansion of battery power, and the pervasive nature of lithium-ion can be witnessed on electrical grids, ferries, airplanes, and scooters.
Lithium-Ion Domination Could Block Potentially Better Technology?
In a paper by the MIT Energy Initiative, warnings against the premature settling on dominant lithium-ion technology suggest that markets are potentially shunning batteries with longer durations.
This is referred to as a ‘lock-in,‘ which occurs when dominant designs overtake alternatives that can perform the same function.
Troubles with Lock in Technologies:
Excessive market concentration means that innovations and improvements that potentially better the dominant design never come to fruition. Since lithium-ion batteries rule the grid market, other producers of alternative storage technologies don’t have much chance of survival and don’t look toward investing in improvements for optimal performance.
Benefits of Lock in:
This can also lead to greater innovation and it reduces the price of the dominant technology, leading to further expansion.
