We have chronicled several early warnings of climate change on these pages. But we have learned people did not believe they could influence a force as mighty as Earth’s climate at the time. We marked the contributions of Svante Arrhenius and Guy Callendar in this regard. However, both failed to grasp the deeper meaning of their discoveries. Gilbert Plass came closer to the truth, as we shall see.
The Truth Gilbert Plass Came Closer to Discovering
Gilbert Plass published a paper in 1956 titled ‘The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climatic Change’.
He wrote, “The most recent calculations of the infra‐red flux in the region of the 15 micron CO2 band show that the average surface temperature of the earth increases 3.6° C if the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is doubled.
“And decreases 3.8° C if the CO2 amount is halved, provided that no other factors change which influence the radiation balance”. Nowadays we know both facts are true. However, at the time this represented radical thinking, and head-butted societies pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
However This Time There Were More Sympathetic Ears
Gilbert Plass findings harmonized with U.S. Government conclusions the Arctic ice sheets were melting. These findings correlated with increasing levels of atmospheric CO2. However, few scientists comprehended a temperature increase of more than ‘perhaps 2ºC in hundreds of years’.
And so once again humanity continued burning fossil fuel, and pumping carbon dioxide regardless because it would not listen. We are reaping the benefits of this ignorance today. However, Gilbert Plass findings contain a deeper conclusion that is still calling us to respond.
Do your remember how he wrote … “and decreases 3.8° C if the CO2 amount is halved, provided that no other factors change which influence the radiation balance”. We have hope, but we must act soon if we are to reduce the threat we face, and gift our children’s children with a fairer future.
Related
Climate Change Part 6: Knut Angström
Climate Change Part 9: The Callendar Line
Preview Image: Gilbert Plass American Scientist 1956
